To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. Search our Site: . Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. In 2022, there were 67 incumbent members of congressseven U.S. senators and 60 members of the U.S. Housewho did not file to run for re-election, amounting to 14.3% of those members eligible to run for re-election. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. The latest results and live updates on the 2022 midterm House of Representatives elections by state. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. 51 +1. Its a busy time for collecting polls. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. Clickme! "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. Last updated Nov. 8, 2022, 2:08 p.m. PST Steve Shepard Chief POLITICO election reporter Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the "Solid," "Likely" or "Lean Republican" category putting. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. One additional factor that is not included in the House forecast is the impact of redistricting, which will take place this cycle based on the results of the 2020 census. House.[5]. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. If one assumes that both parties hold each of their two currently vacant seats, we know that Democrats will be defending 222 of 435 House seats and 14 of 34 Senate seats next year, then the only predictor whose value is unknown is the generic ballot. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Arkansas. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. The results in Table 2 show that the generic ballot and the number of seats defended by the presidents party have strong and statistically significant effects in both House and Senate elections. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. Fifty-two districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election, five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. Looking for the national forecast? "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. Read the analysis ($). Nov. 8, 2022, In Washington State, Senator Patty Murray is facing a strong Republican challenge, though she remains favored to win. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. San Nicolas (D), the delegate representing Guam's At-Large Congressional District, retired to run for governor. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. You can also view these ratingsas a table. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Leading candidates forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in the top 50 competitive districts. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. Democrats 36 seats not up for election. Premier Franois Legault and his Coalition Avenir Qubec are certain to win the next provincial election. . 49 -1. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. Click here to change which version of the model you see. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . I use the estimates from these models to make conditional forecasts of the results of the 2022 House and Senate elections. [1] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. Research: Josh Altic Vojsava Ramaj Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Current House. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. President Biden's approval numbers posted every weekday, Assessing the Impact of Absentee Voting on Turnout and Democratic Vote Margin in 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms By Alan I. Abramowitz, Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020 By Alan I. Abramowitz, Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections By Alan I. Abramowitz, Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year, Not Woke Yet? The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Election Day Live Results: Choose a map to follow along as the votes are counted and races are called. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation's capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . Notice any bugs or missing polls? Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. One district was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[3]. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. We default to the Deluxe . We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win . Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . All rights reserved. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. 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